United States
Folks who still use dial up to connect to the Internet have never known fast. Broadband customers are far more familiar with Internet speed, though. I wonder if they have noticed any diminution in that speed over the last couple of years. The population of Internet users has certainly grown, and continues to grow at a rapid pace, with more markets emerging onto it (China, for instance). In the United States alone, estimates put the number of users in the 225M – 235M range out of a population of 305M, and many believe it is higher. Traffic is estimated to be doubling every year now world-wide. It can’t help but slow things down, especially because of the way data travels over the web.
When a digital photo, live streaming video, or email (large or small, attachments or by themselves) is sent over the Internet, the data is first divided into packets, which are routed to the destination and then reassembled. When there are large amounts of data sent along similar routes or paths, transport of those packets tends to break down. Packets or streams of packets can get hung up, and the result is a web site that crashes.
I’ve written in the past about web sites that have been the target of attacks intending to bring them down – - these are known as DOS, or denial-of-service, attacks. Streams and streams of data packets are directed at the sites and the routes become clogged as a result. The sites end up crashing and going down, as the server is overwhelmed by the data and can not re-assemble the packets. With traffic ever increasing, and as the Internet starts to stagger under the weight of more and more of that data, these problems are increasingly common.
There is an effort underway at the present time to develop a new Internet to address these limitations. Internet2, as it is called, is a group of U.S. universities, companies and scientific and governmental organizations, and it’s already being tested by a limited few on the soon-to-be-operational Large Hadron Collider in Europe, where scientists must share massive amounts of data about the collision of subatomic particles. There were several articles on that very subject last week, and litigation that has been filed by those who do not want that Collider used in planned subatomic particle tests for fear that mini-black holes will be created that would devastate the planet. Putting that aspect aside, the amount of data needing to be shared must be incredibly massive, and I can understand the need for speed in its delivery. Internet2 hopes to complete testing in May 2008 and roll the technology out shortly after.
The speeds being reported as possible are impressive, and fast enough for everyone to take notice. They will not be incremental; they will just be really fast. Some in the field question whether it will be necessary, though, as recent progress in making “packet switching” software more efficient, as well as better optical fiber and faster servers and routers, have suggested what we have could be made to work well enough. Personal Internet use probably doesn’t care so much about speed, except perhaps in getting that movie download in seconds rather than minutes or hours. But, I do understand the benefit of speed where lives are at stake – - medical examinations long-distance, security information needing to be disseminated quickly, and such.
As for me, just the assurance that a web site I want to access will be there, and that the email I am sending or expecting will arrive relatively quickly, would be sufficient. One thing I do know, though: Internet2 and faster speeds will come, whether needed or not. It’s the nature of technology to advance, and it can’t be stopped.